Wednesday, December 11, 2013

Future
10 December 2013

Are smarter cars driving us to distraction?

(Thinkstock)
(Thinkstock)
Hi-tech features from sat-navs to voice-activated music systems are designed to help drivers, but scientists are discovering how distracting they are too.
Not so long ago choosing a new car was relatively straightforward. After cost, and possibly colour for some, primary considerations were things like engine size, performance and fuel efficiency.
These days, manufacturers are making our choices more difficult by adding all manner of advanced tech features, from in-built sat-navs and parking assistance to voice-activated or touchscreen DVD players and radios. While these systems can undoubtedly improve the driving experience, there are fears they may also be too much of a distraction for drivers, and make roads more dangerous as a result.
Minimising distraction was one of the topics explored at the recent Connected Car Expo in Los Angeles. Scientists and engineers discussed some of the new tools and methods they are developing to improve our understanding of the issue, which in turn could hopefully provide some solutions.
For example, researchers led by Bruce Mehler at MIT in Cambridge, Massachusetts, are assessing driver distraction using an advanced driving simulator – basically a full car inside a lab equipped with display screens – as well as adapted vehicles driven on real roads. In both types of experiment, a range of sensors measure driver behaviour like when pedals are pressed and how hard, and also collect data on their vital signs like heart rate and sweat gland activity from the fingers. Cameras track drivers’ eyes while they are driving under a variety of test conditions.
The video above shows one of the tests carried out. Subjects were asked to change the radio station either manually or using voice control. They were also instructed to repeat numbers being read out, only sometimes they have to repeat those one or two back in the list. The idea was to test how driving is affected by increasing the amount of information the brain deals with, or the “cognitive load” as it is known.
This research has already revealed some intriguing findings. A recently released study shows that drivers using voice command interfaces to control in-car navigation systems or USB-connected music devices can sometimes spend longer with their eyes off the road than those using conventional systems.
‘Eye opening’
Voice activated systems in newer radio systems would seem to offer an advantage over older car radios of keeping the drivers eyes on the road. (Indeed, tuning an older radio was used as a baseline task in these tests.) But according to Mehler, problems arise when the system needs clarification of what the driver wants, such as when inputting an address into a navigation system. 
A user could say, for instance, “I want to go to Boylston St”, but the car could find a Boylston St, Boylston Av, and Boylston Circle. Those options are repeated to the driver, who is asked to select one.
“I could use voice, and answer that, and keep my eyes on the road,” says Mehler, a research scientist at the MIT AgeLab and New England University Transportation Center. “But now I’m keeping a fair amount of information in my head, and that could create a level of cognitive demand which makes it harder to attend. So although I am looking at the road, I may not be seeing things on the road.”
One way some manufacturers get around this is to present lists of options on display screens. Research backs this up: it shows that drivers can take a quick glance and select an option safely.
However, the way drivers interact with their in-car systems tells only part of the story. Human behaviour also needs to taken into account. Mehler describes a recent study that examined the driving habits of both frequent and infrequent cell phone users as “really quite eye opening”.
According to Mehler: “People who report using their cell phones frequently, even when they don’t have it in their hand, drive faster, drive more aggressively.” The study showed frequent users drove almost 5kph faster, switched lanes twice as often, spent more time in the far-left lane, and were more likely to slam on the brakes. “They’re likely to do things in the car that some of the rest of us wouldn’t be comfortable with doing,” he says.
So what makes for less distracting car features? In April this year, the US National Highway Traffic Safety Administration released voluntary guidelines on the subject for manufacturers, recommending systems are designed so that divers don’t take their eyes off the road for more than two seconds at a time, or 12 seconds in total per interaction or task. The guidelines come after a study by the NHTSA showed that hand-eye coordination tasks (such as using a cell phone) made it three times more likely a driver would crash.
But researchers working in this field are well aware that drivers want access to an increasing range of information, from navigation prompts to social media updates. Therefore blocking this information altogether is not realistic. According to Mehler, if the in-car tech locked people out when vehicle were in motion, they would just pick up their phones. In which case they would be back to square one.
People are always going to want to be connected, he says. “The real challenge is to understand how you can develop interfaces that balance demands, to find optimal routes for people to do these things.”
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Tuesday, December 10, 2013

JP Morgan files for anonymous online payment system

BitcoinA US Senate committee hearing was told in November virtual currencies such as Bitcoin were a "legitimate financial service"

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US bank JP Morgan Chase has filed for a patent in the US to invent a payment system using "virtual cash", similar to the emerging online currency, Bitcoin.
JP Morgan said that, like Bitcoin, the features of the electronic system would let users make payments "completely anonymously".
It added that users would not have the "expense of today's wiring fees".
But in its application, the bank said traditional credit cards would dominate for "at least the next five years".
The bank noted: "None of the emerging efforts to date have gotten more than a toehold in the market place and momentum continues to build in favour of credit cards."
Analysts say the move comes as banks, credit card companies and online payments firms such as PayPal are trying to gain dominance as people make more of their financial transactions online.
JP Morgan's patent application comes after China banned its banks from handling transactions involving Bitcoins.
China said Bitcoin was not backed by any nation or central authority.
Bitcoin's price has more than trebled in value since October.
It increased further in November, when a US Senate committee hearing was told virtual currencies were a "legitimate financial service", with the same pros and cons as other online payment systems.

Tuesday, December 3, 2013

Singularity University plots hi-tech future for humans

Rob Nail walks into the room looking like a Silicon Valley Doctor Who as played by David Tennant - tailored suit, 3D-printed trainers and the Californian twist on the sonic screwdriver, Google Glass.
But despite spending most of his days predicting what the future will look like, he doesn't want to become a time lord.
"I feel more like a robot," says the chief executive of the Singularity University (SU).
He thinks that the gap between humans and robots is closing as biology and silicon increasingly collide.
He reels off examples.
Bionic eyes that combine a Google Glass device with a tiny electrode in the retina and will be available in the US for partially-sighted people in a few weeks' time. It is only a matter of time before they filter down to the wider public. "Useful for pilots.," he says.
He describes apps for the next-generation Google Glass that will allow users to read the heat maps of people's faces to tell if someone is lying or not. "They will either be banned or become a must-have in the world's boardrooms."
And the first re-engineered human is not far off, either. "It will come within the next year, probably initially to offset some disease," he predicts.
"If you want to be at the head of the class in future you are going to have to be enhanced," he says matter-of-factly.
Disruptive technology
Singularity University is a quintessentially Silicon Valley concept. An organisation some regard almost as a cult, others treat with amusement but which few are prepared to entirely ignore.
That isn't just because it is home to some of the brightest minds on the planet. Or the fact that it is based at Nasa's research park in Mountain View and within spitting distance of the Google campus.
What is making people sit up and take notice of SU is the fact that it has identified a range of disruptive technologies - innovations that can disrupt existing markets - that it believes will change the world, from digital manufacturing to biotechnology, from robotics to artificial intelligence.
As well as highlighting the role they will play in future society, SU also has the modest ambition of using them to solve what it calls the "grand global challenges" - poverty, energy, food, education and disease.
If SU has a godlike figure, it is Ray Kurzweil, Google's chief engineer and the man who has become synonymous with the concept of singularity - the tipping point when artificial intelligence overtakes human brainpower.
He has even put a date on when that will happen so put an entry in your diaries now - "2045 - put feet up and allow robot overlords to take over."
And the bible of SU is Abundance, a book by co-founder Peter Diamandis, which talks a lot about how we will soon have the technological capacity to fulfil the needs of everyone on the planet.
Now SU is spreading its gospel to Europe, hosting its first European summit in Budapest, in the august surroundings of the Liszt Academy.
Glowing plants
The phrase you are most likely to hear during the weekend conference is "exponential curve".
This is the idea that technology innovation is no longer a linear progression but an unstoppable mountain of change - with the summit being the seamless integration of the biological and the non-biological.
The joke on campus is that SU is neither a university nor does it teach the singularity.
Instead the organisation, funded by firms including Google, Autodesk and the X Prize Foundation, runs a series of graduate and corporate programs, as well as conferences.
Its ten week summer course is hugely popular but it only takes 80 graduates each year.
Each is expected to emerge with the seeds of a groundbreaking start-up that has the power to change the lives of one billion people within 10 years.
The programme has so far spun out about 100 companies, 50 of which have been funded. They include Getaround, a peer-to-peer car sharing scheme; Blue Oak, which aims to extract copper from landfill by using bacteria, and Matternet, which uses drones to deliver vital medicines in the developing world.
More controversial are the firms that are already making that crossover between the biological and the non-biological, such as two start-ups growing artificial meat in the lab.
"I'm a vegetarian and for me the idea of growing meat in a petri dish has far less ethical issues than hacking it out of the side of a cow," says Mr Nail.
"Now only 10% of people might opt to eat such meat but I think those numbers will change dramatically in the next five years."
And a project to create a glowing plant attracted controversy when it launched on Kickstarter this summer. It grew out of an SU spin-off that allows you to drag and drop DNA from one organism into another - in this case by adding a bioluminescent gene to a mustard plant.
Even Mr Nail finds the idea of manipulating genetic code "super-frightening" and admits that the Kickstarter format was possibly a bit of a "cowboy way" to introduce people to bio-hacking.
But he said, such publicity "starts a conversation about these things".
Utopian future
From the Edwardians fearing how the motor car was going to change the world to people worrying about the influence of TV, we have always been deeply suspicious about new technology.
There is, another SU faculty member tells me, a natural "status quo bias" in the human brain, where it becomes impossible to imagine the future as anything other than a faster version of the present.
The SU folks seem to have overcome that bias and are full of optimism about a utopian future where biological entities and silicon live in perfect harmony.
The less enhanced among us may veer towards the more dystopian visions portrayed in countless sci-fi films.
Either way it is going to be mind-blowing, quite possibly in a literal sense.

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Monday, December 2, 2013

BBC
Future
2 December 2013

What will it take to set up colonies in space?

  • Concept re-launch
    Space think tank British Interplanetary Society is reviving an ambitious idea from the 1970s to build huge colonies in space. (Nasa Ames Research Center)
An ambitious idea for creating giant orbiting homes in space is being resurrected by a think tank. If you think this sounds absurd, it’s worth noting this group predicted travelling to Moon 30 years before it happened.
Imagine a pristine landscape of fertile fields and forests nudging up against the foothills of towering mountains. Rivers meander between prosperous towns dotted across the countryside. You can hear the sound of children playing in parks and gardens. Above them, in a clear blue sky, the Sun catches the wing tips of gliders circling in the thermals.
It sounds perfect, but something is not quite right. The scene is unnaturally idyllic, the sky slightly too blue and the horizon more curved than normal. That’s because this world is only 16 miles long, four miles wide and contained in a giant cylinder floating in space.
It’s a space colony concept, drawn up by the late Princeton physicist Gerard O’Neill in the mid-1970s, but his ambitious plan is now being revived by the space think tank British Interplanetary Society (Bis). The organisation has form in championing ideas that are not necessarily as wildly eccentric as they first appear. In the 1930s it came up with a detailed plan for a multi-stage rocket and a manned lunar lander, which looks remarkably like the mission that 30 years later successfully delivered Neil Armstrong and Buzz Aldrin to the Moon.
“Back in the 1930s, the major work of the British Interplanetary Society was explaining to the public that exploring space was not a ridiculous idea,” says Jerry Stone, leader of the Study Project Advancing Colony Engineering (see what they did there?). “And what I’m trying to do with the space colonies project is something similar, to show that building a very large space colony is technically feasible.”
O’Neill’s original space colony proposal started out as an exercise for a group of students at Princeton. “Is a planetary surface the right place for an expanding technological civilisation?” he asked them. After a few months, and a great many calculations, the answer came back a resounding “No”. This got him interested in alternative human habitats beyond the Earth, and he conceived giant rotating spaceships containing landscaped biospheres housing up to 10 million people.
“There are two big advantages of constructing a colony in space rather than on a planet,” explains Stone. “You have the Sun’s energy 24 hours a day, so you can concentrate that energy to melt materials or use it to generate power, and you can rotate the habitat to create whatever gravity you want.”
These solar-powered colonies would be positioned at Lagrange points, stable areas in space where gravitational forces effectively balance each other out. They therefore wouldn’t need their own propulsion systems. Travelling to them would take weeks, compared to the months required to get to Mars.
Space odyssey
O’Neill’s detailed plans for his colonies appeared in the journal Physics Today, where he thought through many of the practical considerations. The basic structure of the habitats, for instance, is designed around a hollow tube made of metal and glass. Within, a plant-rich landscape stretches around the walls, broken up with giant windows into space.
There would be a semi-natural water cycle including clouds, and oxygen would be recycled by plants. These climate-controlled living spaces would be like the most beautiful areas of Earth, with a rich mix of disease-free flora and fauna. Maybe even a selection of endangered species.
Rather than living on the outside of a sphere as we do on Earth, colonists would settle around the inside. With the cylinder rotating, they would experience an artificial gravity effect. Only if they moved away from the cylinder’s walls, towards its central axis would they feel weightless. In this way, the inhabitants of Earth 2.0 really would be able to fly.
O’Neill deliberately designed the structure using existing 1970s technology, materials and construction techniques, rather than adopting futuristic inventions. The hollow cylinder, for instance, was based on steel and aluminium. After detailed calculations, he claimed his concept was feasible at the time he published it.
Stone is bringing these plans up to date using today’s technologies. Rather than building the shell from aluminium, for example, Stone argues tougher and lighter carbon composites could be used instead. Advances in solar cell and climate control technologies could also be used to make life easier and more comfortable in human space colonies.
One of the biggest theoretical challenges O’Neill faced was the effort and cost of construction. That, says Stone, will be solved when a new generation of much cheaper rocket launchers and spaceplanes has been developed, such as the UK-built Skylon. Using robot builders could also help.
“Ninety per cent of the material to build the colonies would come from the Moon,” says Stone. “We know from Apollo there’s silicon for the windows, and aluminium, iron and magnesium for the main structure. There’s even oxygen in the lunar soil.”
Designs for life
Let’s assume it is doable, what would be the cost of such a vast human undertaking? “Good question,” admits Stone. “The likelihood is that it would be started off by a consortium of companies and we hope that would become an international group.” Alternatively multi-billionaires with an interest in space such as Jeff Bezos of Amazon or SpaceX’s Elon Musk might take the lead.
But the practicalities of building a colony in space are only part of the story. Perhaps even more important and complex, are the societal considerations. What sort of laws and government should it have? A democracy or a billionaire’s fiefdom? Perhaps it would be the ultimate offshore tax haven. At first the colonists may model their political, legal, economic and social structures on those back home, but eventually they are likely to be adapted to the new environment. Stone has drawn up a three-page list of fundamental questions of this kind that his study group plans to address.
There is indeed a lot to think about and it’s easy to knock these sorts of big, visionary ideas. However, I’m not alone in believing that if humanity is to survive we will one day have to leave the Earth. A giant space habitat might be just the stepping-stone to the stars that we need.
If you would like to comment on this article or anything else you have seen on Future, head over to our Facebook page or message us on Twitter.
BBC
Future
2 December 2013

Secret city design tricks manipulate your behaviour

  • No loitering here
    A wall that would be perfect to sit for a rest, if it wasn't for those rocks. (Selena Savic)
Hidden in our streets and buildings are "unpleasant designs" that force us to make certain choices, discovers Frank Swain. Once you know what they are, it will transform how you see your city.
When Selena Savic walks down a city street, she sees it differently to most people. Whereas other designers might admire the architecture, Savic sees a host of hidden tricks intended to manipulate our behaviour and choices without us realising – from benches that are deliberately uncomfortable to sculptures that keep certain citizens away.
Modern cities are rife with these “unpleasant designs”, says Savic, a PhD student at the Ecole Polytechnique Federerale de Lausanne in Switzerland, who co-authored a book on the subject this year. Once you know these secret tricks are there, it will transform how you see your surroundings. “We call this a silent agent,” says Savic. “These designs are hidden, or not apparent to people they don’t target.” Are you aware of how your city is manipulating you?
Meshing social engineering with civil engineering has a long history. Robert Moses, the “master builder” of 20th Century New York City, famously crossed his roads on Long Island with low stonework bridges that buses could not pass under. This prevented poor, predominantly black Americans who relied on public transport visiting the beach retreats enjoyed by wealthier car-owning New Yorkers.
While Moses’ politics were objectionable, his methods were undeniably successful, and to this day designers continue to shape the behaviour and the character of urban centres with subtle modifications to the built environment. The method is particularly attractive for combating crime.
In 1999, the UK opened a Design Against Crime research centre, and authorities in Australia and the US have since followed suit. Many of the interventions these groups pioneered are familiar today: such as boundary marks painted around cashpoints to instil an implied privacy zone and prevent “shoulder surfing”.  
San Francisco, the birthplace of street skateboarding, was also the first city to design solutions such as “pig’s ears” – metal flanges added to the corner edges of pavements and low walls to deter skateboarders. These periodic bumps along the edge create a barrier that would send a skateboarder tumbling if they tried to jump and slide along.
Indeed, one of the main criticisms of such design is that it aims to exclude already marginalised populations such as youths or the homeless. Unpleasant design, Savic says, “is there to make things pleasant, but for a very particular audience. So in the general case, it’s pleasant for families, but not pleasant for junkies.”
Preventing rough sleeping is a recurring theme. Any space that someone might lie down in, or even sit too long, is likely to see spikes, railings, stones or bollards added. In the Canadian city of Calgary, authorities covered the ground beneath the Louise Bridge with thousands of bowling ball-sized rocks. This unusual landscaping feature wasn’t for the aesthetic benefit of pedestrians walking along the nearby path, but part of a plan to displace the homeless population that took shelter under the bridge.
No lie
In recent years, public benches too have been redesigned – you think that’s just an armrest placed right in the middle of the bench? It’s also to stop somebody sleeping there.
The Camden Bench – named after the UK local council that devised it – is a masterpiece in unpleasant design. The amorphous slab of concrete is made from a material that resist posters, stickers and graffiti, it has a ridged peak and sloped surface that prevents sleeping, and its makers even claim the bench deters litterers and drug dealers by not providing any crevices to shove things. Comfort is not one of its top features though – you have to perch on a sloped seat and there’s no backrest.
In other places, adding deliberate discomfort proves a clever design trick to get people to do certain things. A famous (if apocryphal) story circulates in design circles that the plastic chairs in McDonalds are engineered to be comfortable for a maximum of 15 minutes to keep tables free. A more overt move is to remove chairs altogether. London Heathrow’s Terminal 5 has just 700 seats for the estimated 35 million travellers a year passing through its gates. For most of these weary globetrotters, the only place to sit down is in one of the 25 airport restaurants – with obvious benefits to their revenues.
Similarly, escalators in multi-level shopping malls or department stores are often deliberately positioned so that you must walk past more shops to ascend each floor.
One of the problems with these designs, says Savic, is their implacability. “They are non-negotiable. If you have a policeman prohibiting people to sit somewhere, you can still fight with this policeman, or argue with him, you can do things. When you have a bench that has armour, you can’t really as a human do anything about it.”
Anna Minton, author of Fortress Britain, points out that many of these non-negotiable designs are in fact shortgaps to fill in for the disappearance of benign authority figures in public spaces, such as bus conductors and park wardens.

City fightback
Faced with this hostile architecture, what can city dwellers do to reclaim their streets? A few designers have come up with playful ideas to make their city more comfortable. At first glance their creations are almost silly, but they’re based on the serious point that unpleasant design can create exclusions in a city, and divisions between the rich and poor.
One German artist, Oliver Schau, devised a simple solution to reclaim the unforgiving architecture of Hamburg, by wrapping bright yellow flexible plastic pipe around bicycle racks and bridge struts to create impromptu resting places that would be impossible to sit on otherwise.
Similarly, Sarah Ross in the US came up with the “archisuit”, an all-in-one outfit with tactically-placed cushions to turn even the most unpleasant design into a comfortable resting place. “It’s supposed to be ridiculous and funny, and point to the ridiculousness of aggressive architecture,” says Ross. “These are laughable design solutions to actual real problems that have nothing to do with architecture and everything to do with the social safety net.” 
As far as Savic is concerned, any efforts that highlight the invisible unpleasant design features are a good thing. “We want to draw attention to this potentially dangerous approach and make it somehow familiar,” she says.
So next time you’re walking down the street, take a closer look at that bench or bus shelter. It may be trying to change the way you behave.
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